WP 1 Policies, activity data and scenarios

In Work Package 1 ‘Policies, activity data and scenarios’ the main drivers for the shipping sector such as the present and future transport needs due to economic and societal developments will be described. Further, policy instruments that are implemented today and decided for the future will be analysed regarding their impact on ship traffic and technology development.
Updated shipping activity for 2014 will be obtained from AIS data. The volumes of sewage, bilge and ballast water and their assignment to ship activity and/or onshore facilities related to handling of the waste water from ships will be calculated as well as emissions to air from different ship categories. Also activity data for pleasure boats will be obtained for the countries around the Baltic Sea.
Further, a set of scenarios will be developed in order to analyse different future outcomes in regard to shipping, the environment, human health and climate. These scenarios will be descriptive and forecast possible outcomes of different drivers of change. These drivers can be regulations, economic development, technical breakthroughs etc. The scenarios will be developed for the years 2030 and 2040. The scenarios will be used in SHEBA to support the analysis of how shipping will impact the environment in regard to air, water and noise. One scenario will be a business-as-usual scenario (BAU) to describe what will happen with current trends in development of the sector and with already decided regulations becoming implemented. There will then be a set of alternative scenarios illustrating the effect of changes in the drivers. Examples of some of the key factors influencing scenarios to be considered include: fuel changes; the use of mitigation technologies; environmental requirements; changes in traffic volume and modal shifts; different levels of water pollution; and changes in technologies.